 "Lok Sabha elections, exit polls")
Exit polls provide an early indication of voter preferences during elections, drawn from interviews conducted with voters immediately after they leave polling stations.
As voting for Haryana assembly elections comes to an end on Saturday (October 5), all eyes will shift to the exit polls, with the official results set to be announced on October 8.
Exit polls provide an early indication of voter preferences during elections. These projections are drawn from interviews conducted with voters immediately after they leave polling stations.
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While the 2014 exit polls in Haryana were mostly accurate in predicting the BJP’s victory, they were significantly off the mark in 2019 when many forecast a decisive win for the BJP, only for the elections to result in a hung assembly.
In Jammu and Kashmir, which last held an Assembly election in 2014, exit polls had predicted a hung Assembly, giving the edge to the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) over the BJP, National Conference, and Congress.
How accurate were exit polls last time for Haryana?
In 2014, the BJP came to power, ending the Congress’s 10-year reign. The average of four exit polls had projected the BJP would fall just short of the 46-seat majority in the 90-member Assembly. According to these polls, the BJP was expected to win around 43 seats, with the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) predicted to follow with 27 seats and the Congress with 13.
Although the projections were close, the BJP ended up winning 47 seats, while Congress secured 15. Pollsters were further off with the INLD, which won 19 seats—eight fewer than predicted.
Two polls, News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen, projected that the BJP would cross the majority mark. Times Now and India TV-CVoter accurately predicted Congress’s seat tally, while News 24-Chanakya came closest to the INLD’s final count.
However, in 2019, most polls anticipated a landslide victory for the BJP, with some suggesting the party would win over 70 seats. Instead, the election resulted in a hung Assembly, with no party securing a clear majority.
Surprising shift in election results
On average, eight exit polls had estimated the BJP would win 61 seats, with Congress trailing at 18. In reality, the BJP secured only 40 seats, while Congress won 31. Pollsters had overestimated the BJP’s performance by 21 seats and underestimated Congress’s by 13.
Seven of these polls predicted that the BJP would secure a majority on its own, with NewsX-Pollstrat forecasting as many as 75-80 seats. India Today-Axis was the only one to predict the BJP would win between 32-44 seats and fell short of a majority.
Few polls expected Congress to cross the 20-seat mark, and just one predicted they would surpass 30 seats. India Today-Axis’s projection of 30-42 seats for Congress turned out to be the most accurate.
Narrow miss in J&K state elections as well
In 2014, the last time J&K held an Assembly election, CVoter’s exit poll projected that no party would cross the 44-seat majority threshold in the then 87-seat Assembly.
The exit poll estimated the PDP would win between 32-38 seats, the BJP 27-33, the NC 8-14, and Congress 4-10. The actual results saw the PDP win 28 seats, the BJP 25, the NC 15, and Congress 12.
First Published: Oct 05 2024 | 3:29 PM IST
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